WTPN22 PHNC 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191921Z SEP 25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 
191930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 97.2W TO 14.8N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 97.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 
97.5W, APPROXIMATELY 230NM SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGER (EIR) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE 
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), 
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE (29-30 C) 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 97E WILL HAVE A 
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
211300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 112.1W//
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