WTPN21 PHNC 191930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191221ZSEP2025// 
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// 
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 191230). THE AREA 
OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 112.1W, IS APPROXIMATELY
 129 NM EAST OF CLARION ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 
SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, 
MINIMAL RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM LOSING INTENSITY. 
ECENS HAS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY DE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS 
WHILE GEFS ALIGNS WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON THE TIMELINE OF THE 
SYSTEMS MODERATE DE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THIS SYSTEM IS NO 
LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
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