WTPN21 PHNC 181230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171221Z SEP 25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 108.9W TO 19.8N 113.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 109.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.3N 103.1W IS NOW LOCATED 16.2N 109.1W, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE (28-29 C) TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT, WHILE GFS IS 
CURRENTLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVERALL. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 171230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
191230Z.
//
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