ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZSEP2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180551ZSEP2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152ZSEP2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REFS B AND C ARE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18SEP25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG 
KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.3N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 581 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES.  ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 180113Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS SHOWING THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT IN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 
180600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.4N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 164.3E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTH 
SOUTHEAST. A 172240Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST 
AND NORTHEAST OF 91W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) AND GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT IN 
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE NO OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SUPPORT. GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 91W ONLY PICKING UP ON ECENS WITH A HIGHER 
INTENSITY OVER GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 
180200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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