ABPW10 PGTW 180200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180200Z-180600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZSEP2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152ZSEP2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17SEP25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 119.9E, APPROXIMATELY 383 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG 
KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 172100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.7N 134.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 421 NM 
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF 90W. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE ON A 
NORTH NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GFS SHOWING TO BE MORE INTENSE OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 90W ON A NORTH NORTHWEST 
TRACK AS WELL WITH BOTH IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON AN INTENSITY OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.4N 165.9E  IS NOW LOCATED 23.5N 164.3E APPROXIMATELY 282 NM NORTH 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE.ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. A 172240Z 
ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF 91W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF SHOWING 
SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE NO OTHER 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SUPPORT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 91W 
ONLY PICKING UP ON ECENS WITH A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER GEFS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 180200) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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