WTPN21 PGTW 180200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.5N 164.3E TO 24.7N 156.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5N 164.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 22.9N 
167.1E IS NOW LOCATED 23.5N 164.3E APPROXIMATELY 282 NM NORTH NORTHWEST 
OF WAKE.ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. A 172240Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 
20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF 91W. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30-31C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR 
A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE NO OTHER DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS SHOW SUPPORT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 91W ONLY PICKING UP ON 
ECENS WITH A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
190200Z.
//
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