WTPN21 PHNC 171230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161221ZSEP25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 102.8W TO 15.1N 108.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 103.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.3N 102.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 103.1W, APPROXIMATELY 
380NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR 
LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
(28-29 C) TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATES STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND 
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PHNC 161230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
181230Z.//
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