WTPN21 PHNC 161230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 102.8W TO 15.1N 108.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 103.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.3N 102.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 103.1W, APPROXIMATELY 376 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULO. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE 
BANDING WITH BROADER BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
171230Z.//
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