ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.6N 122.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 150217Z 
METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KT 
WINDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE BROAD 
NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT 98W WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH 
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ECENS BEING MORE 
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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