WTPN21 PHNC 141300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 13E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 110.0W TO 19.3N 113.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 110.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 13E) IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 
110.3W, APPROXIMATELY 53 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF 13E 
RE-CONSOLIDATING WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. 
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ENSEMBLE MODELS DISPLAY A SIMILAR TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
ECENS HAVING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AMONGST THE MODELS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
151300Z.
//
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