ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4N 125.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 95.6 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TRANSITING WESTWARD 
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES 
AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINES WITH LITTLE 
DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ECENS 
SHOWING MORE MEMBERS FORMING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA COMPARED TO GEFS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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