ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2N 126.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130029Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE 
SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 
KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), OFFSET BY INTERACTION 
WITH THE PHILIPPINES AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER 
THE PHILIPPINES WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR ENSEMBLES, ECENS IS MORE 
AGGRESSIVE IN THE SHORT TERM THAN GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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