ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/121800Z-
131800ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.5S 93.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DOES NOT DEPICT A DEFINABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
FOR INVEST 93S, ONLY A VERY BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED ROTATION WITH 
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 112122Z SSMIS 
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED ROTATION 
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A PATCH OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE RAPIDLY BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS, WITH NO MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
CONTINUING TO DEPICT A MODEST AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE SAME TIME 
WINDOW. BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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