ABIO10 PGTW 121330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/121330Z-121800ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12SEP25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BLOSSOM) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 754 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT 
LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
120900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.5S 93.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DOES NOT DEPICT A DEFINABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) FOR INVEST 93S, ONLY A VERY BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED 
ROTATION WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 
112122Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN ILL-DEFINED AND 
ELONGATED ROTATION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A PATCH OF 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), STRONG UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND 
WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE 
RAPIDLY BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS, WITH NO 
MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A MODEST AMOUNT OF 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE SAME TIME WINDOW. BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE AGREE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 2.A.(1) WITH 03S FINAL 
WARNING INFORMATION.//
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