ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-
121800ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZSEP2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100752ZSEP2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11SEP25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BLOSSOM) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 9.8S 63.8E, APPROXIMATELY 723 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.2S 95.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 94.2E, APPROXIMATELY 247. NM 
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH CURVED BANDING APPEARING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A LACK OF 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA PRECLUDES A HIGH 
CONFIDENCE ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE 
BROAD NATURE OF THE ROTATION IS INHIBITING CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT 
AT THE MOMENT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MODELS DISAGREE ON 
WHETHER OR NOT 93S WILL DEVELOP. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT EITHER VERY 
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO A BORDERLINE TC WITHIN 24 HOURS, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE 
SHOWING A STRONGER DEVELOPMENT SIGNAL, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS 
SOUTHWESTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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