WTXS21 PGTW 110800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.6S 95.2E TO 13.0S 90.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.0S 95.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.2S 95.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 110400Z MWR 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN 
OBSCURED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT, DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 40-50 
KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
DISAGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 100800).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
120800Z.//
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