WTPN21 PHNC 102030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 96.4W TO 16.2N 102.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 96.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 
96.6W, APPROXIMATELY 198NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT0 LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION, WITH BROAD BUT FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES. A PARTIAL 
101518Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WARP NEAR 
THE CENTER OF THE LLC. IN THE WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THERE IS AN 
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE 
CETNER. ENVROMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD 
EQAUTORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
112030Z.//
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