ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZSEP2025//
REF/B/MSG JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/100752ZSEP2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.9N 65.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 64.0E, APPROXIMATELY 163 NM WEST 
OF KARACHI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED 
BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND WEAK 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK WITH 
LITTLE TO NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10SEP25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.5S 65.4E, APPROXIMATELY 468 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.3S 94.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 95.2E, APPROXIMATELY 641 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH 93S 
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE 
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT 
FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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