ABIO10 PGTW 100800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/100800Z-101800ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZSEP2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100752ZSEP2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
25.6N 66.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.1E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM WEST 
OF KARACHI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
FRAGMENTED BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 
C), AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE ON A 
WESTWARD TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09SEP25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.3S 67.2E, APPROXIMATELY 368 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2S 95.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 501 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH 93S 
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE 
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT 
FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 100800) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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