WTXS21 PGTW 100800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.0S 94.2E TO 9.4S 92.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.3S
94.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.8S 94.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 501 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30 
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH 93S TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL TRACK 
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110800Z.
//
NNNN