ABIO10 PGTW 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/092200Z-101800ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09SEP25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.3S 67.2E, APPROXIMATELY 368 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2S 95.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 464 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEVELOPING PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), OFFSET BY 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 93S 
CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTH WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER 
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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