ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/091800Z-
101800ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09SEP25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 9.7S 68.4E, APPROXIMATELY 289 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2S 
95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS CYCLING 
CONVECTION FROM THE NORTH EAST WITHIN THE WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 091435Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-25 
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE 
AREA INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(28-29 C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 93S CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTH WITH 
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION MORE ON GFS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT AS WELL THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
SOUTH, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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