ABIO10 PGTW 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/082200Z-091800ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082151ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 
8.7S 71.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM SW OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. 
A 081725Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A 
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
MODERATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (25-30 KTS), OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) AND 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS ON A WESTWARD TRACK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS 
WELL THAT 92S WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH ECENS SHOWING 
HIGHER INTENSITY SUPPORT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 
PGTW 082200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B. (1) TO HIGH.//
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