WTXS21 PGTW 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8S 71.0E TO 9.1S 63.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8S
71.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 
8.7S 71.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM SW OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. 
A 081725Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A 
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
MODERATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (25-30 KTS), OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) AND 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS ON A WESTWARD TRACK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS 
WELL THAT 92S WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH ECENS SHOWING 
HIGHER INTENSITY SUPPORT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
092200Z.
//
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