ABIO10 PGTW 081900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/081900Z-091800ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.1S 72.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 71.3E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO BANDING EVIDENT. 
AN 850MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE INVEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH.  A 081636Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT 
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR 
THE AREA INDICATES MODERATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS ON A WESTWARD TRACK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT AS WELL THAT 92S WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
ECENS SHOWING HIGHER INTENSITY SUPPORT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
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