ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z-
091800ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.0S 78.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO BANDING EVIDENT. AN 850MB 
VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE INVEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NEAR 
EQUATORIAL TROUGH.  A 080450Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 10-15 KNOT WINDS 
WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH 20-30 KNOT WINDS TO THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 92S. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES MODERATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 
C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS ON A WESTWARD TRACK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS 
WELL THAT 92S WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH ECENS SHOWING 
HIGHER INTENSITY SUPPORT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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