WTPN21 PGTW 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 119.1E TO 19.4N 116.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 118.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0N 118.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 118.7E, APPROXIMATELY 381.2 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 
A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH 
OF THE CENTER ASSISTING THE SYSTEM WITH A LINE OF CONVERGENCE DEEPENING 
THE CONVECTION. A 051241Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS 
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING TO WRAP CLOSER TO THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA WITH CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
061430Z.
//
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