ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.4N 132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH PERSISTENT, FLARING 
CONVECTION. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION FROM 020300Z SHOWS 12 KNOT WINDS 
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A SLP OF 1008 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 
10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED 
CIRCULATION FORMING ADJACENT TO A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION AND A NORTHWARD 
TRACK TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN. THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT A 
NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD KYUSHU OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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