WTPN21 PHNC 011330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 102.4W TO 19.1N 110.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 102.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) IS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
102.6W, APPROXIMATELY 178NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL MOVE GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
021330Z.
//
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