ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.9N 132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 644 NM EAST 
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD AND INCOMPLETE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30 C), OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE 
BROAD NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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