ABPW10 PGTW 311200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/311200ZAUG2025-010600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7N 132.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 641 NM EAST 
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE 
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT. A 302357Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE FURTHER EMPHASIZES 
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF 95W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 
C), OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE 
WIND FIELD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER AND REMAINS 
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE PHILIPPINES SEA OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED 20W (NONGFA) INFORMATION DUE TO 
FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION.//
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