ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZAUG2025-010600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30AUG25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (NONGFA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.0N 104.4E, APPROXIMATELY 199 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 301500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.4N 133.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 658 NM EAST 
OF MANILA. PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE 
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT. A 302357Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE FURTHER EMPHASIZES 
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF 95W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 
C), OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE 
WIND FIELD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER AND REMAINS 
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE PHILIPPINES SEA OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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