WTPN21 PHNC 301830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (93E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300851ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 119.8W TO 18.0N 124.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 119.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 
14.2N 117.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 119.8W, APPROXIMATELY 393NM 
SOUTHWEST OF CLARION.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C), LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, PORTRAYING 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A WESTERN TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN PHNC 300900).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
311830Z.//
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