WTPN21 PHNC 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290851ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 290900). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 
113.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 117.3W, APPROXIMATELY 452 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING, ISOLATED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 300528Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE 
DEPICTS WEAKER WINDS (10 KNOTS) WRAPPING INTO 93E FROM THE NORTHEAST 
WHILE ALSO HAVING A LACK OF WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, PORTRAYING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. 
THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
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