WTPN21 PHNC 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 113.2W TO 13.4N 118.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 113.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 
113.6W, APPROXIMATELY 691 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY AND A 290455Z MHS 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
FLARING, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 290458Z 
ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS TO 
THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 
KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OF 27-28 C. DETERMINISITC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, 
PORTRAYING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
300900Z.//
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