WTPN21 PGTW 280330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 116.2E TO 16.6N 110.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 280220Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.0N 116.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.1E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM 
WEST OF MANILA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, 
GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A BROAD BUT 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE IMAGERY 
ALSO HIGHLIGHTS UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH 
WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
290330Z.//
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