ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25AUG25 1200Z, TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 
105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED 
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 
PGTW 251500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3N 123.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.7E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM EAST 
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), VERY WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.  LAND 
INTERACTION AND A HIGHLY TILTED VORTEX ARE CURRENTLY HINDRANCES MOVING 
FORWARD AS 93W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD, WITH MARGINAL 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE SPLIT, WITH 
ECENS FAVORING WEAK DEVELOPMENT EAST OF LUZON ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, 
WHILE GEFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND FAVORS DEVELOPMENT 
AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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