WTPN21 PHNC 240830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 106.6W TO 19.0N 115.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240821Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 107.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 
107.0W, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240042Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS, 
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE UPON A WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT SLOW 
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
250830Z.//
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