ABPW10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211800Z-220600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21AUG25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (LINGLING) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 109 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 211500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 124.4E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM EAST 
OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AS 
WELL AS A 211023Z SSMIS 91GHZ F16 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. FURTHERMORE, A 211251Z METOP-C 
ASCAT PASS FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT 
APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. THE ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE 
SYSTEM MAY BE STARTING TO CLOSE-OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION, THOUGH 
ONE THAT REMAINS VERY BROAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
THE CIRCULATION WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER LUZON WITH CONSOLIDATION IN THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B(1) TO MEDIUM//
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