ABPW10 PGTW 181430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181430Z-190600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181421ZAUG2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18AUG25 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.      
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.9N 122.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM 
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON 
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY, DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT AND THE 
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ROTATION. 
THE TUTT CELL PREVIOUSLY POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION 
HAS MOVED TO A POSITION WEST OF THE LLCC, AND BECOME A HINDRANCE TO 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE CONVECTION AND THE 
MID-LEVEL VORTEX AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR 
THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET 
BY LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. HOWEVER THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH ECENS BEING 
EXTREMELY GENEROUS AND GEFS HOLDING ONTO A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 181430) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3N 149.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 144.6E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING CUSP OR LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AT THE 
NORTHERN END OF AN EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE. A COMBINATION OF AN 180015Z 
AND 172351Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES REVEALED THE FACT THAT 90W REMAINS 
PRIMARILY A WAVE WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CUSP AT THE NORTHERN END OF 
IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25KTS EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF FANANU, THEN TURN SHARPLY TO EASTERLIES AT THE LATITUDE 
OF 90W, WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF 25KT EASTERLY WINDS EXTENDING TO A 
POINT ABOUT 290NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
ASSESSED TO BE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND 
VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK 
NORTHNORTHWEST INTO SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS BUT DO NOT CURRENTLY DEPICT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WINDS OF 
25-30KTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, IN 
THE GRADIENT FLOW, AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. ENSEMBLE 
DEVELOPMENT IS STRONG ON THIS CIRCULATION WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST 
FAVORABLE MODEL INTENSITY WISE HOWEVER GEFS IS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT IN PARA 1.B.(1)//
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