WTPN21 PGTW 181430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.9N 126.9E TO 26.9N 127.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.9N 126.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.9N 122.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM 
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH. THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, DUE TO 
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ROTATION. THE TUTT CELL 
PREVIOUSLY POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION HAS MOVED TO A 
POSITION WEST OF THE LLCC AND BECOME A HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT WITH 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE CONVECTION AND THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX 
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 
C), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W 
WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH ECENS BEING EXTREMELY GENEROUS AND GEFS 
HOLDING ONTO A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 171430)
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
191430Z.
//
NNNN