ABPW10 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180900Z-190600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18AUG25 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.6N 122.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AFB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON 
TROUGH. RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY AND IS CONSOLIDATING INTO FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND 
STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 92W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ECENS 
AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREE THAT 92W WILL DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE 
ECENS MODEL BEING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3N 149.5E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3N 149.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 281 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING CUSP OR LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AT THE 
NORTHERN END OF AN EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE. A COMBINATION OF AN 180015Z 
AND 172351Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES REVEALED THE FACT THAT 90W REMAINS 
PRIMARILY A WAVE WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CUSP AT THE NORTHERN END OF 
IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25KTS EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF FANANU, THEN TURN SHARPLY TO EASTERLIES AT THE LATITUDE 
OF 90W, WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF 25KT EASTERLY WINDS EXTENDING TO A 
POINT ABOUT 290NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
ASSESSED TO BE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND 
VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWEST INTO SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BUT 
DO NOT CURRENTLY DEPICT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WINDS OF 25-30KTS ARE 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, IN THE GRADIENT 
FLOW, AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. ENSEMBLE DEVELOPMENT IS 
STRONG ON THIS CIRCULATION WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE MODEL 
INTENSITY WISE HOWEVER GEFS IS STILL IN AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO WARNING 
STATUS//
NNNN