ABPW10 PGTW 180030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180030Z-180600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180021ZAUG2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.5N 127.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM 
SOUTH OF KADENA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH. FLARING CONVECTION 
CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND IS CONSOLIDATING INTO 
FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE 
AGREE THAT 92W WILL DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE ECENS MODEL BEING MORE 
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 171430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9N 111.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.0E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALSO HAVING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO 
THE SOUTHEAST. A CONTRACTING WIND FIELD AND REDUCTION OF THE RADIUS OF 
MAXIMUM WINDS INDICATES THAT A TRANSITION FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION 
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS COMMENCING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR 
THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 
C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL 
DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE ECENS MODEL BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GEFS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 180030) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1. B. (2) TO 
HIGH//
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