ABPW10 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171430Z-180600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZAUG2025// 
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.2N 127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM 
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED 
MONSOON TROF. FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO FORMATIVE BANDING. A 171235Z 
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A FORMATIVE LLCC TO THE WEST OF AN EXTENSIVE 
REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF 
THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ISOLATED IN THE 
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TUTT-
CELL POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTH OF 92W, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO 
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN 
AND AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT ONLY OFFSET BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE 
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W 
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.3N 111.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED 
AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS.  ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AS WELL AS A 180212Z METOP-C 89 
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  A 
170216Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE CHINESE COAST 
TO THE EAST OF HAINAN, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 
200NM. THE ASCAT AS WELL AS THE MSI SUGGEST POCKETS OF ENHANCED 
ROTATION AND VORTICITY ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS, IN 
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CIRCULATION, WRAPPING UP THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE MODERATELY 
UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL VWS (20KTS) AS WELL AS A LACK OF 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY WARM SSTS OF (28-29C). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION 91W WILL NOT CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE A SLUGGISH NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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