ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZAUG2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.3N 126.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM 
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
AS WELL AS A 170419Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROF. FLARING CONVECTION 
IS FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE LLC IN THE CONVERGENT 
FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROF AXIS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A 
TUTT-CELL POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTHEAST OF 92W, WHICH IS 
IMPARTING NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER 92W AND DRAWING IN DRY MID-LEVEL 
ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR 
THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS) AND DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH, OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 
C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL VERY SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATE AND ONLY MINIMALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS, HINDERED BY PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND MODERATE SHEAR MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N 
111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, CHINA. THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY 
CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM 
DIAMETER, WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK 
CORE OF LIGHT WINDS.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
AS WELL AS A 180212Z METOP-C 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A VERY 
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  A 170216Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS 
REVEALS 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE CHINESE COAST TO THE EAST OF HAINAN, 
WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 200NM. THE ASCAT AS WELL 
AS THE MSI SUGGEST POCKETS OF ENHANCED ROTATION AND VORTICITY ALONG 
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS, IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
THE CIRCULATION, WRAPPING UP THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
FACTORS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE 
UPPER LEVEL VWS (20KTS) AS WELL AS A LACK OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
OFFSET BY WARM SSTS OF (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 91W WILL NOT 
CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE A SLUGGISH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS 
HAINAN ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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