ABPW10 PGTW 170000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170000Z-170600ZAUG2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N 
125.1E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF KADENA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 92W IS STARTING TO 
FORM WITHIN THE TROUGHING THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO THE LUZON STRAIT.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS) 
OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK 
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE MIXED 
REGARDING THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR 92W. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE SHOW A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE ECENS 
MODEL BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GEFS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1. B. (1).//
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