ABPW10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/061800Z-070600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZAUG2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06AUG25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (BAILU) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 162.2E, APPROXIMATELY 959 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, 
AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 060300) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 06AUG25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 157.2E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF 
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 061500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.3N 
148.4E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION 
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 061121Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED A COMPACT WIND FIELD 
WITH 20 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 
KNOTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 
C). GFS AND GEFS ARE SHOWING THAT INVEST 98W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
GENERALLY WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS MEDIUM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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