ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/061800Z-
071800ZAUG2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.8S 63.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 62.1E, APPROXIMATELY 616 NM WEST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). A 061157Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE 
BANDING ALL AROUND THE LLCC WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
91S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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