WTPN22 PHNC 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051451ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 95.9W TO 18.2N 108.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 96.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF COMVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.7N 94.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 96.5W, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUILDING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-
29C). HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 91E WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 91E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 
051500).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071500Z.//
NNNN