ABPW10 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051500Z-060600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051452ZAUG2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05AUG25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (BAILU) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 857 NM EAST OF MISAWA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 051500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.2N 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEING SHEERED 
LIGHTLY FROM THE PRIMARY CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A 051051Z 
ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES A SYMMETRIC, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 
KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
20 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT INVEST 97W WILL 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT 
WITH THE OVERALL TRACK, WITH THE GFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE MODELS 
AGREEING WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 051500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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